Are lumber prices dropping?

In recent years, the lumber market has been far from uniform or straightforward, taking us on a rollercoaster ride that has left homeowners, trade professionals, and woodworking enthusiasts perplexed. One of the burning questions on everyone’s mind is, “Are lumber prices going down?” However, it’s important to note that the answer isn’t as straightforward as it may seem. The lumber market is a complex web of factors, and prices can vary significantly depending on the type of lumber and where it’s sourced.

Understanding the Lumber Price Surge

To comprehend the current state of lumber prices, we need to revisit the factors that led to the astounding surge during the pandemic.

Supply Chain Disruptions

At the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic, lumber production companies faced closures and reduced production due to local regulations, leading to a significant decrease in supply. This unforeseen interruption in the supply chain left many questioning the future of lumber prices.

Uncertain Demand

Many lumber producers and home improvement stores initially anticipated a decline in demand due to expected construction slowdowns during the pandemic. However, the opposite occurred, with a surge in construction and renovation projects. This unexpected surge in demand created a perfect storm that drove prices to historic highs.

DIY Boom

With more people confined to their homes, DIY enthusiasts embarked on renovation and home improvement projects at an astonishing rate, driving up demand for lumber. This surge in DIY projects became a defining trend during the pandemic, and the resulting boom in building material prices is still fresh on everyone’s mind.

Migration to Suburbs

Urban dwellers sought more spacious living conditions in suburban areas, resulting in increased home construction and renovation projects. The exodus to the suburbs fueled the demand for lumber, exacerbating the price hike.

All these factors combined to drive the cost of commodity lumber, such as SPF (Spruce-Pine-Fir), from just over $400 per thousand board feet before the pandemic to over $1,500 in early to mid-2021, as reported by Statista. However, it’s essential to acknowledge that this index primarily reflects commodity lumber. Specialty lumbers, on the other hand, haven’t come down as quickly or may still be higher due to various factors, including wildfires and supply chain disruptions, depending on their origin, whether domestic or import. For example, the war in Russia has affected Baltic Birch plywood pricing, and wildfires in Canada and California have impacted Western Red Cedar pricing.

Impact on Homeowners

The surge in lumber prices significantly impacted homeowners. The average cost of building a home jumped by over $18,000 due to the increase in the cost of 1,000 board feet to four times pre-pandemic levels. This unforeseen financial burden forced homeowners to reevaluate their construction and renovation plans.

Home renovation budgets were stretched to their limits as lumber costs soared. Projects that were once deemed affordable suddenly became more expensive, challenging homeowners to find creative solutions and cost-effective alternatives.

Homeowners had to employ various strategies to cope with the high lumber costs. From revising project scopes to seeking alternative materials and suppliers, lumber was one of the many things we had to rethink to ensure projects remained feasible.

Impact on Trade Workers

Lumber plays a crucial role in the construction and trade industries, with wood-framed components present in approximately 9 out of 10 single-family homes in the U.S. Trade workers rely on a stable supply of affordable lumber to carry out their projects effectively.

Trade workers faced significant challenges during the peak of lumber prices. Managing project budgets became a delicate balancing act, and dealing with material shortages added complexity to their work. It was a period that tested their adaptability and resourcefulness.

As lumber prices decline, trade professionals anticipate changes in construction costs and increased demand for their services. However, because of the stalling of the real estate market, the industry may be preparing for a shift in the types of projects they’ll be handling.

Impact on Woodworkers

Lumber price fluctuations directly influenced the cost of DIY and woodworking projects. Building that dream backyard deck or crafting custom furniture became more expensive during times of high lumber costs. In some cases, a rough cut 6×6 more than doubled in price. This price barrier challenged the creativity and resourcefulness of amateur woodworkers.

Woodworkers had to adapt to the changing landscape of lumber prices by adjusting project plans and expectations, but falling lumber prices present opportunities for amateur woodworkers to take on more ambitious projects and explore new design ideas. Projects that were once deemed too costly may now be within reach, inspiring woodworkers to expand their horizons.

Factors Leading to the Price Decline

The recent drop in lumber prices can be attributed in part to the federal government’s decision to increase interest rates as a measure to combat inflation. These interest rate hikes have had a ripple effect on the housing market, affecting both supply and demand.

Impact on Demand: Higher interest rates have made it more expensive for people to finance their home purchases, reducing the affordability of homes. As a result, some potential homebuyers have been priced out of the market, leading to a decrease in demand for new homes, especially among first-time buyers.

Influence on Supply: Builders have responded to the changing market conditions by slowing down the pace of new construction. This adjustment aims to align supply more closely with the evolving demand landscape. As the housing market stabilizes, the frenetic construction pace is expected to ease, affecting the demand for lumber.

This complex interplay between interest rates, housing demand, and lumber prices highlights how broader economic factors impact the cost of essential building materials.

A slowdown in the real estate market has contributed to a more balanced supply and demand equation. As the frenzied pace of new construction subsides, lumber supply chains have started to catch up, alleviating some of the pressure on prices.

Future Outlook

While lumber prices are on the decline, experts predict a gradual stabilization. Prices are expected to land between $450 and $600 per thousand board feet. However, it’s essential to remember that these figures are indicative of commodity lumber and may not necessarily reflect the situation for specialty lumbers, which can still be affected by supply chain disruptions or other regional issues. This price range, while still higher than pre-pandemic levels, represents a significant price drop from the peak. This shift signals a more sustainable and predictable future for lumber costs.

Navigating the Current Landscape

Homeowners, trade professionals, and amateur woodworkers can navigate the evolving lumber market by carefully managing budgets and adjusting project expectations. This newfound stability in prices allows for better financial planning and cost-effective decision-making.

Falling lumber prices present opportunities for cost-effective projects, renovations, and home improvements. Homeowners can now consider additional upgrades, trade professionals can bid on more competitive projects, and woodworkers can tackle larger and more intricate creations.

Strategies for smart lumber purchasing and storage can help stakeholders make the most of favorable market conditions. Taking advantage of lower prices for commonly used cuts and varieties and stocking up a bit can ensure a smoother workflow in the future and minimize disruptions.

A Raleigh Lumber Yard Dropping Prices

The past few years have taught us to expect the unexpected in the world of lumber prices. While we can’t predict every twist and turn, staying informed and adaptable is key. As lumber prices gradually ease, homeowners, woodworkers, and hopefully the housing market can look forward to a more stable and cost-effective future in the construction and home improvement industries.

Whether you’re planning a renovation, a construction project, or a creative woodworking endeavor, Capitol City Lumber in Raleigh, NC, is your go-to destination for quality lumber, hard-to-find varieties, and building materials.

Here’s why you should pay us a visit:

1. Wide Selection: Capitol City Lumber offers an extensive range of lumber and building materials to meet your specific needs. From framing lumber to hardwoods and plywood, we’ve got you covered.
2. Expert Advice: Our knowledgeable staff is here to assist you. Whether you’re a seasoned professional or a DIY enthusiast, we can provide guidance on choosing the right materials and offer tips to make your project a success.
3. Competitive Prices: We understand the importance of affordability, especially in today’s market. Our commitment to competitive pricing ensures that you get the best value for your investment.
4. Local Support: By choosing Capitol City Lumber, you’re supporting a local business that has been serving the Raleigh community for years. We take pride in being the top-rated trusted partner for all things lumber-related.

Don’t miss out on the opportunity to explore our lumber yard, browse our selection, and discover the perfect materials for your next project. Capitol City Lumber welcomes you to experience firsthand the quality and service that sets us apart. Give us a call at 919.832.6492 or get a quote for your materials online!

Lumber prices fell 6% today as mortgage rates reached a 14-year high. When the COVID-19 pandemic started in 2020, practically every market was affected in one way or another. Possibly none more so than the lumber market. From the start of 2020 to May of 2021, lumber prices increased over 333%. Suppliers, lumber companies and individuals are all asking “when will lumber prices go down?”

Last summer the lumber market tested levels below 500 only to spike again months later. Prices have since dropped more than 50% back to those lower levels…but will they continue to fall?

When Will Lumber Prices Go Down?

You know it’s bad when you’re driving down the road and you see billboards for composite decking advertising that they are “cheaper than wood”. But that is exactly how things have been over the past few years.

If you monitor lumber prices in general, you know they typically start falling around Labor day and reach their yearly low around Thanksgiving. This could present a good buying opportunity for individual buyers, companies and investors.

So when will lumber prices go down? Historically, the answer would be “now” or “over the next 2 months.” But as we’ve seen, the last two years have done anything but follow historical precedent.

Top Lumber Stocks

In a recent Investment U article about lumber stocks, Brian Kehm highlighted two stocks with unique opportunities for future profits.

Weyerhaeuser (NYSE: WY)

Kehm highlights Weyerhaeuser as one of the largest forest product companies in the world. Owning more than 11 million acres, Weyerhaeuser is shielded from localized forest damage. The company also has solid balance sheets and impressive cash flows.

Weyerhaeuser stock has more than doubled since the start of the pandemic…but those profits have not benefited all of the employees. In fact, as we speak Weyerhaeuser employees in Oregon and Washington are on strike, citing low wage increases and high health care premiums.

“All our members want is their fair share of the profits they earned for the company, keep up with the cost of living, and make the gains that a good employer should offer, in light of the success they have reaped off the labor of their employees,” the union said in a statement.

Negotiations are expected to continue on Friday.

Rayonier (NYSE: RYN)

Rayonier is another company Kehm highlighted. With revenues reaching $1.11 billon in 2021, they have certainly benefited from rising lumber prices. And while Weyerhaeuser’s timber segment only represents 24% of the overall business, Rayonier’s timber segment is nearly 3/4ths of all business operations.

Because of the company’s lack of diversification into the real estate and manufacturing segments, their ups and down over the past 2 years have not been as dramatic. Rayonier’s revenue has dropped more than 15% year over year, but the $860 million from 2021 went a long way towards meeting any debt payments.

Currently offering a 3.32% dividend yield, the company recently declared a third quarter cash dividend of $0.285 per common share. The dividend is payable on September 30, 2022, to shareholders of record on September 16, 2022.

The Company also announced a third quarter cash distribution of $0.285 per operating partnership unit. The cash distribution is payable on September 30, 2022, to holders of record on September 16, 2022.

When Will Lumber Prices Go Down to Pre-Pandemic Levels?

Prior to the pandemic, lumber was selling anywhere from $300 – $400 US per 1,000 board feet. It is quite possible we will not see those prices ever again. This is now the second time since the pandemic started that the market has tested the $500 level. As inflation, supply chain issues and labor shortages continue, we could see another large price increase after Thanksgiving.

Currently, there is another supply chain issue brewing in the form of a railroad worker strike. This “could add further volatility to the price of lumber and other commodities that rely on freight trains.”

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